There appeared to be a rejection of populism in the UK. Johnson was ejected by his own party, to be succeeded by a lunatic and then by a businessman playing at politics. His hubris and naïvety led to his downfall, and the electorate finally got a say. Did they reject populism? No. They didn't.
Many voters were disillusioned with the Conservative Party. Some felt that it was too far right, while others found it not right enough. There were defections to Reform, the Liberal Democrats, to Labour and to just staying home. Sir Keir Starmer very carefully said as little as possible to upset anyone, a feat which he managed rather well, resulting in him becoming Prime Minister. Since his elevation, he's looked rather surprised by it all and blundered about somewhat haplessly. Despite a sizeable majority, I can see no way of him getting a second term.
What seems more likely is a resurgent Conservative Party or Reform Party, and perhaps not as long as four years away. Populism is surging worldwide. For good or bad, electorates are turning to engaging, media-savvy, well-funded politicians who use data to mould policy to fit target voters. The thirst for access to data and funds has catapulted tech billionaires to prominence. Trump-Musk is the ultimate dream ticket. Unlimited funds and unlimited data are now married to unlimited power. Can Musk launch a nuclear war? Does Trump control the media?
Centrists cling to the hope that self-declared Alphas such as Elon and Donald will soon tire of each other and fall out. Some believe that Musk will withdraw his support and effectively take his ball home. It is surely possible that Trump will look to nationalise Musk. This was Putin's response to the Oligarchs. They cut him in or got cut up—or defenestrated, literally, in some cases.
Putin's done. His disastrous campaign in Ukraine demonstrated to both the US and China that his military is a ghost of itself. For China, this alleviates concerns about influence in Asia. Over the last several decades, China has extended its influence in Africa. Have you ever played Risk? If China holds those two continents for a couple of turns, it will be impregnable.
Trump is Putin's hope, which will please the American no end. Donald will offer the carrot of helping Putin extricate himself from a resource-sapping action in Ukraine. What will he demand in return, I wonder?
A deal will be made in Ukraine that allows both Putin and Trump to claim strategic victory. Heroic Ukrainian resistance will have preserved the state's existence, albeit one significantly reduced in size.
Trump will hope to play Russia off against China while cementing a legacy. I think we should accept that Donald J. Trump will never be prosecuted for anything and that he will embezzle himself over the next several years to incalculable wealth. His ambition must now be to be King of the World.
Oh wait. That was another amoral populist wasn't it? What price his return?
