Ministry of the Obvious

Donald Trump is the President-elect of the United States. He won the Electoral College and the popular vote. The Republicans have a majority in the Senate and look likely to win the House. It's a red wave—a slam dunk, a grand slam, a massacre—you get the picture. 

Journalists, pollsters, and commentators are poring over the data, trying to figure out how the game was won. Those who disdain Mr. Trump look on bemused.

"How could America vote for this vile creature?" They cry.

Don't listen to all these experts; listen to me, Stu. I am an expert on precisely nothing but never short of an opinion.

First, Trump did not win the popular vote—the winner seldom does. These are the actual results.

1. Can't be arsed to vote - 100.4 million
2. Donald Trump - 74.3 million
3. Kamala Harris - 70.3 million

The turnout is actually very high, but the fact remains that an American President is never the choice of a majority (much the same as everywhere else, of course.) 

There are lots of narratives as to why people voted for Trump, most of them trying to rationalise how people could vote for a convicted felon, a misogynist, racist, (insert enraged noun here) liar. I think the answer is perhaps more straightforward than many assume.

I believe that most people come from the baseline that all politicians are corrupt. That all politicians lie. That's why so many don't vote at all. That Trump is a caricature of these nasty traits doesn't matter. Some give Trump credit for being open about his self-serving priorities. 

The dominant narrative of the 21st century thus far is migration. In the 19th and 20th centuries, migration was positive (for us wealthy white folk, anyway). Entire continents were colonised in a celebrated mass land grab. In the 21st century, everyone is terrified that their country is going to be swamped by immigrants, immigrants who will take all the work and resources. 

Take Back Control! Build the Wall! Stop the Boats. Choisir La France (Choose France). Neue Deutsche? Machen wir selber. (New Germans? We'll make our own.)

I make no case as to the validity of these; I don't need to, just as Trump, Le Pen, AFD, Meloni, and Orban don't need to. It is a fact that populations, some of whom vote, are deeply concerned by the question of migration. They're frightened. The populists of the right way, I don't need to, just as Trump, Le Pen, AFD, Meloni, and Orban don't need to. It is a fact that populations, some of whom vote, are deeply concerned by the question of migration. They're frightened. The populists of the right say - "We will stem the flow." This reassures the voter. It addresses a key concern.

How does the left, or even the centre, counter this?

I'll wait.

Exactly. There's a spectrum of muttering, from, "We'll stop the boats too, but in a much more humane way, and after consultation with our partners, with due consideration..." the voter has, of course, stopped listening. Their bullshit meter is ringing loud. Some actually make the case that immigration is absolutely essential to maintain the economies and lifestyles that the wealthy enjoy...but that's not making the average voter feel good. No-one, other than the right, is prepared to talk about migration and how to manage it.

But surely elections hinge on the economy? "It's the economy, stupid."

Yep.

The right - "We're going to make America great again." Talk of tariffs, American jobs for American people. A stop to costly foreign wars. 

Harris? Do you know, I have no idea what she planned to do for the economy, and neither did the electorate.

Voting for Trump is and was a perfectly logical response to the messaging from the campaigns.

Of course, now, the real work begins. Many of the promises will bear no scrutiny at all. Tariffs are inflationary, not deflationary, for a start. However, if governments could control economies, no government would ever lose an election.

Are we doomed to politics shifting ever further to the right?

No, we're not.

The centre and the left have to address voter concerns rather than keep banging on about pet concerns. Offering solutions and hope for a bright future is the only way to do so.

To paraphrase historian Dominic Sandbrook, Democrats have talked about Trump voters; they may want to think about talking to them.

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