Trump 2.0

As I write, next Monday will mark three weeks since the inauguration of Donald Trump for his second term as President of the United States. For many, it feels longer than that.

The presidency has begun with a flurry of executive orders and a storm of activity. Much of it might be illegal, which the man himself regards as a mild inconvenience. I guess that some of it will get rowed back, but I'll wager a lot of it won't. This post will be out of date the second I publish it, so quickly is the administration moving.

I'm on record here at the blog as no fan of the Donald. However, I am amused by the narrative that he "wasn't elected to do this". Sorry, yes, he was. This is what draining the swamp looks like.

Many Americans applaud Donnie and Elon kicking ass and taking names. Eliminating waste from government. Yeah!

What about tariffs? For too long, different countries have imposed bigger tariffs on the US than the US imposed on them. We're going to match every tariff. Hoo-Ha!

Defend Europe from Russia? Why? The damned Europeans spend much less than us on defence, then expect us to send our hardware and our brave American boys to bail them out. Hell no. What's Ukraine got to do with us?

Gaza? Great real estate. Mediterranean coast. Beautiful. The Arabs can look after those Palestinians, the Jews will feel safe with a US territory next door and what a resort we can build. Genius, no?

These narratives appeal because there is a kernel of sense in each. Let's have a look.

Governments tend to be wasteful. The cost of the US government has been growing at an alarming rate, even the last time the Donald was in.

In late 2020, a Brookings Institution paper argued that despite his anti-state rhetoric, Trump had “opened the contract and grant spigots,” adding some 2 million employees to the federal payroll. By the end of his term, “the true size of government” was “nearing a record high.”

What Went Wrong With Capitalism - Ruchir Sharma

The book argues that small government is an illusion. US administrations, red and blue, have been growing the government decade by decade. It also explores the new vogue for making up money, something of which the Orange one surely approves.

The tariff system of the World Trade Organisation is an unholy mess. Simplifying it is a great idea. I'm no economist, but a quick analysis of tariffs demonstrates that the countries with the lowest are the richest. Funny, that.

Many European countries do not spend the agreed % of GDP on defence as required by their membership of NATO. Trump's tough-talking last time, oh, and a psychopath in the Kremlin, has gone some way to getting spending up, particularly in the East. However, Putin is not going to stop. Rewarding him for aggression will buy a brief peace, but he'll be back. Of course, there is a massive moral elephant in the room. But what significance does morality have for the amoral?

The Middle Eastern Riviera. Who wouldn't like that? The modern chapter of the Israel - Palestine conflict has raged since the creation of modern Israel in 1948. Trump is right to tangentially (unintentionally) point out that while people buy into the idea of a two-state solution, nobody makes it happen.

There's a casual racism in lumping everyone in the Middle East into a basket, whether it's called Arab or anything else. I suppose the equivalent would be expecting Mexico to absorb part of Texas or California. The Orange one's ability to glibly discount the horror endured by the people of that region is striking. Horrifying, but striking nevertheless.

How are things going to pan out? I don't know. Neither does he.

He doesn't care.

He's grifting. He's in it for the money. Always has been.

I imagine gradually, Americans will reap the rewards of a protectionist economy. Less choice. Lower quality and higher prices. Forced to regard the United States as peripheral, unreliable and quixotic, the rest of the world will, well, regard the United States as peripheral, unreliable and quixotic. I suppose we should fear it happening too quickly, as the one thing Trump can't bear is being ignored. Who knows what he'll do?

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